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Projected land use change in an oil-rich landscape in Uganda: A participatory modelling approach
Department of Environment and Livelihoods Support Systems, Faculty of Interdisciplinary Studies, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda; School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom .ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3379-7709
The Nordic Africa Institute, Research Unit.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6042-6706
Graduate student, Faculty of Interdisciplinary Studies, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda.
Department of Physics, North-West University, Mmabatho, South Africa; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Muni University, Arua, Uganda.
2022 (English)In: The Extractive Industries and Society, ISSN 2214-790X, E-ISSN 2214-7918, Vol. 10, article id 101071Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The discovery of oil in the North Albertine Rift Landscape of Uganda has increased pressure on land andheightened the potential for resource use conflict. In this article, we focus on changing land use dynamics as oilextraction unfolds in a new resource frontier. We ask how the development of the nascent oil industry will affectland use dynamics, including land use conflicts. This leads us to identify the land use change already arising andto use this as the basis for participatory modelling of projected change. Given they are dominant forms of landuse, agriculture and forestry are central to our analysis. Design of the methodology combined remote sensingwith innovative modelling incorporating participatory development methods. This facilitated insight into projected land use patterns, and specifically relationships between small-scale food production, commercial sugarcane production, and forestry conservation adjacent to settlement areas. Our data show that ill–defined landboundaries and an aggressive sugarcane out-grower scheme are avenues for so-called land grabbing. Modellingscenarios under both the status quo and under oil extraction suggest the land area covered by sugarcane production will increase at the expense of food crop farming. Given a context where forestry conservation is animportant form of land use, we also consider the implications of local agricultural change on land reserved forconservation. Overall, our modelling indicates that in accounting for land use change within the resource frontierassociated with oil extraction, there needs to be insight into the intricate interconnections between differentforms of rural land use as future change unfolds. Understanding how oil extraction effects rural land use patternsholds relevance for planning in contexts of the Global South where new oil industries are emerging. Innovativemethodologies for teasing out these complex land use dynamics can aid planning that seeks to anticipate andreduce land use conflict and support agricultural livelihoods. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 10, article id 101071
Keywords [en]
oil extraction; resource frontier; Uganda; North Albertine Rift landscape; participatory modelling; land use; remote sensing
National Category
Other Agricultural Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Natural Sciences
Research subject
Natural resources and environment
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:nai:diva-2641DOI: 10.1016/j.exis.2022.101071OAI: oai:DiVA.org:nai-2641DiVA, id: diva2:1646128
Available from: 2022-03-21 Created: 2022-03-21 Last updated: 2023-01-17Bibliographically approved

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