The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

This policy brief takes a regional perspective based on a rapid review of the extant literature to cascading climate risks and their links with migration in North Africa. Understanding the climate-migration nexus in the context of North Africa is a cornerstone for taking informed decisions and developing strategies to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change, including potential human mobility.

The Mediterranean region is grappling with significant challenges involving water insecurity (e.g. water stress), energy insecurity (e.g. electrification level), food insecurity (e.g. undernourishment and malnutrition), and ecosystem insecurity (e.g. biodiversity loss, deforestation and pollution). These challenges, amplified by climate change, have profound implications for sustainable development in the region, evidenced by the fact that most countries have yet to achieve, or are not progressing towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) relating to food security (SDG 2 – zero hunger), water security (SDG 6 – clean water and sanitation), energy (SDG 7 – affordable and clean energy), and ecosystems, both marine ecosystems (SDG 14 – life below water) and terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15 – life on land). Traditionally, the approaches and efforts to address sustainability challenges in the Mediterranean WEFE sectors have been supply-oriented, sector-focused, and fragmented, often failing to adequately consider the intricate interconnections between different resource systems. However, scholars and policymakers in the Mediterranean are increasingly acknowledging the need for systematic and integrated governance approaches and innovative tools to account for interdependencies between sustainability challenges and approach them holistically to address sustainable development challenges in the Mediterranean region. This need has prompted the emergence of integrated approaches for analysing and managing the interactions between components of the WEFE nexus and their trade-offs and synergies. The WEFE nexus has therefore evolved to focus on achieving SDGs by improving water, energy and food security, as well as the functionality of ecosystems through increasing the efficiency of resource use, reducing trade-offs, strengthening synergies, and enhancing governance across different sectors. However, existing research efforts and policy initiatives on the WEFE nexus in Mediterranean countries have tended to be conceptual, reaffirming the importance of the concept, but there is still a lack of concrete examples of the actual implementation of such an approach. This limited effective implementation of WEFE nexus approaches in the region can be attributed to the fact that WEFE nexus approaches are data-driven and require widely accessible information and reliable data, which in many cases underpin the implementation of nexus approaches.

To transition from conceptualisation to implementation of the WEFE nexus approach, it is essential to develop appropriate methodologies and indicators for measuring, monitoring, and examining progress. The operationalisation of the WEFE nexus approach involves methodological challenges. First and foremost is that there is no single methodology best suited for all WEFE nexus challenges and at all scales, due to the diverse nature of the addressed problems, different resolutions and boundary conditions. Moreover, there is the need to better integrate both nature and societal domains. Holistic, predictive, transferable and scalable methodologies represent the general features most appropriate for operationalising the WEFE nexus approach. Finally, when operationalising the WEFE nexus approach, it is crucial to consider the existence of trade-offs (conflicting goals) and synergies (mutually beneficial outcomes) between sectoral sustainability policies across the SDGs. An awareness of the interconnection between goals is essential for making informed decisions. Without this awareness, trade-offs may arise, and progress towards one sustainability target could potentially hinder advancements towards other targets. Therefore, sustainability policies that effectively balance the preservation of ecological integrity and the promotion of economic growth and social equity often result in more instances of synergistic interactions between different SDGs. WEFE nexus interventions that holistically address both ecological and socioeconomic concerns tend to yield positive outcomes across multiple goals.

This study explored the use of conservation agriculture (CA) as a climate adaptationstrategy among smallholder farmers in Eastern Zambia. Using 761 household interviewsand 33 focus group discussions (FGDs) with smallholder farmers from six districts, datawas collected on how smallholder farmers in the region experience climate change,what CA practices they had adopted, and benefits and challenges associated withCA practice. Results show that men and women farmers had similar experiences ofclimate change, namely late onset of a shortened rainy season, intra-seasonal droughtand higher temperatures. Farmers’ perceptions of gender-mediated effects of climatechange had important nuances. The three most cited effects of climate change onwomen mentioned by women were lower crop yields, outbreaks of armyworms andreduced livestock fodder. The men thought women were most affected by increasedhunger, lower crop yields and reduced domestic water sources. According to the womenFGDs, men were most affected through reduced crop yields, increases in livestockdiseases and increased hunger. The men self-reported reduced crop yields, reducedwater for livestock and outbreaks of armyworms. Both men and women saw CA ashaving climate change adaptation benefits. For the women, men most benefitted fromCA through the high moisture holding capacity of basins, higher crop yields and reducedlabor requirements through use of oxen ripping. The men most appreciated the highcrop yields, improved soil fertility and reduced costs as less fertilizer is used. The womencited the high moisture holding capacity of basins, high crop yields and improved soilfertility as benefits they most commonly derived from CA, while the men thought thewomen most benefitted from CA through the higher crop yields, improved soil fertilityand crop tolerance to droughts. The study concludes that there is room for CA to serveas a climate smart agricultural system for both men and women smallholder farmers inEastern Zambia. However, this will require addressing important challenges of high weedpressure, high labor demands, and low access to manure, and CA farming implements.The CA package for Zambia should include access to timely climate information andclimate informed crop choices

Growth strategies in mining regions promote gold extraction based on industrial mining, associating Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM) with persistent informality. Against this background, we consider how to approach transformations to sustainability in ASGM. Acknowledging how problematic this topic is for sustainability debates, given how ASGM is associated with a host of environmental and social problems, we argue that a justice lens demands we confront such challenges within the global politics of sustainability. This leads us to review advances in the study of ASGM, linked to debates on extractivism, resource materialities, and informality. We use the notion of gold lifeways to capture how the matter of mining shapes different worlds of extraction. We argue that consideration of the potential for transformations to sustainability needs to be grounded within the realities of ASGM. This necessitates giving value to miners’ knowledge(s), perspectives and interests, while recognising the plurality of mining futures. Nevertheless, we conclude that between the immediacy of precarious work and the structural barriers to change in ASGM, the challenges for transformation cannot be underestimated.

This lecture was filmed during 'Africa Day for Librarians' arranged by the Nordic Africa Institute, 9 November 2010 in Uppsala, Sweden. 49 min.

Adam Afzelius botanist and professor at the University of Uppsala, Sweden, and one of he last of the pupils of the famous Linnaeus spent the years 1792-1796 as a botanist in Freetown, Sierra Leone. The first parts of his journals and his collections were destroyed in Freetown during a French attack in 1794, but the journals from 1795 and 1796 survived and are preserved in the manuscript collections of the University Library at Uppsala. Afzelius had a keen eye for minute detail and his journals abound with descriptions and notes of great botanical and ethnographical interest.

This lecture was filmed during 'Africa Day for Librarians' arranged by the Nordic Africa Institute, 9 November 2010 in Uppsala, Sweden. 64 min.

Recent climate changes have increased the incidences of severe droughts and floods, which have increased the vulnerability ofpastoralists in the Kenyan drylands. Thus, there is a need to carry out a situational analysis of groundwater as it is the main source ofwater which provides baseline information useful for planning Analysis of results indicates that Turkana County is dominated byshallow wells and boreholes with the shallowest wells located along the seasonal rivers and Lake Turkana. The borehole depth wasfound to range between 20 to 200m. Most of the boreholes located near Lake Turkana were shallower compared to those far away fromthe lake with a depth ranging between 0 to 52m. Most of the boreholes had a low yield that ranged between 1.2 to 4.6m3/hr be attributedto the basement rocks which are prevalent in the county and are classified as poor aquifers. The water points were mainly dense inurban areas, which was mainly the central region where the water demand was high and this was attributed to the high population. Thegroundwater levels occurred mostly at 13m indicating that Turkana County has mostly shallow aquifers that predominantly occurredalong the river valleys and at the edge of the volcanic deposits. The groundwater quality is mainly saline as most of the boreholes hadhigh TDS, EC and chloride levels. The presence of high fluoride levels indicates the presence of high volcanic rocks that have highfluoride ions that are largely prevalent in the study region. The Sulphate, Nitrite and Nitrate Levels in all the water samples analyzedwere below the EU, WHO and KEBs standards indicating the low anthropogenic activities carried out in the drylands as most farmersare pastoralists. The most prevalent cation was sodium in some of the boreholes indicating why the groundwater was saline.

Non-technical summary

We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.

In 2050, the population in all the Nile Basin countries is expected to be ten times higher than it was in 1950. This will put ever increasing pressure on water as a resource for development. The Nile Basin catchment area is shared by 11 countries covering about one-tenth of the African continent. Globally, around 70 per cent of fresh water consumption is used in agriculture. This puts the spotlight on future scenarios regarding food production: will there be enough water for food security in the Nile Basin countries? In this Current African Issues publication, water scarcity and food security are analysed from a range of perspectives. What are the future predictions regarding population increase and climate change, and how will these affect development in Nile Basin countries? What are the current water theories addressing the above issues, and what are the main challenges the Nile Basin countries will face in a context that is also strongly shaped by its history?

Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges of our time with the impact severely distressing lives and livelihoods particularly in countries of the Global South. In Kenya, climate-related disasters and extreme events have plagued the most vulnerable communities with the most affected as marginalized communities. Through the institutionalization of the Kenya Climate Change Act (2016), the government provides guidance for the climate change response, proposing measures to build resilience and enhance adaptation. Efforts to promote adaption and resilience of communities and households often involve multi-pronged approaches promoted through multi-actor and multi-level action. Besides the provisions of the Act., climate adaptation discourse in the country is shaped through particular narratives which have both international and national contexts. The narratives have developed over time and often overlap, with institutions and individuals working across the different frames. In this paper, we review literature on climate adaptation in Kenya and use it to discuss four of the dominant narratives that shape climate change adaption in the country. The narratives discussed in this paper relate to adaptive capacities, technological and technical, gender and feminist, and climate justice framings. We argue that some narratives have been dominant in shaping adaptation discourse and practice towards certain solutions, and in turn may have obscured and/or subsumed other plausible solutions.

The working paper was undertaken as part of the gender and social equity research work under ClimBeR – Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes. ClimBeR is an initiative of the CGIAR which aims to transform climate adaptation capacity of food and agricultural systems Guatemala, Kenya, Morocco, Philippines, Senegal and Zambia. Its goal is to tackle vulnerability to climate change at its roots and support countries as they adapt and build equitable and sustainable futures.

Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.

The discovery of oil in the North Albertine Rift Landscape of Uganda has increased pressure on land andheightened the potential for resource use conflict. In this article, we focus on changing land use dynamics as oilextraction unfolds in a new resource frontier. We ask how the development of the nascent oil industry will affectland use dynamics, including land use conflicts. This leads us to identify the land use change already arising andto use this as the basis for participatory modelling of projected change. Given they are dominant forms of landuse, agriculture and forestry are central to our analysis. Design of the methodology combined remote sensingwith innovative modelling incorporating participatory development methods. This facilitated insight into projected land use patterns, and specifically relationships between small-scale food production, commercial sugarcane production, and forestry conservation adjacent to settlement areas. Our data show that ill–defined landboundaries and an aggressive sugarcane out-grower scheme are avenues for so-called land grabbing. Modellingscenarios under both the status quo and under oil extraction suggest the land area covered by sugarcane production will increase at the expense of food crop farming. Given a context where forestry conservation is animportant form of land use, we also consider the implications of local agricultural change on land reserved forconservation. Overall, our modelling indicates that in accounting for land use change within the resource frontierassociated with oil extraction, there needs to be insight into the intricate interconnections between differentforms of rural land use as future change unfolds. Understanding how oil extraction effects rural land use patternsholds relevance for planning in contexts of the Global South where new oil industries are emerging. Innovativemethodologies for teasing out these complex land use dynamics can aid planning that seeks to anticipate andreduce land use conflict and support agricultural livelihoods.