The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

We examine the perceived business risks and impacts on performance associated with the Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022 among 450 Egyptian small and medium-sized agrifood enterprises. Our analysis identifies six distinct clusters of enterprises based on their perceived risks and three clusters based on the observed impacts of the war. We find a strong association between perceived business risks and observed impacts, suggesting that the risks identified by agrifood SMEs significantly influence their actual business performance. This underscores the importance of understanding and effectively managing perceived risks to mitigate the negative impacts of external shocks, enhance operational resilience, and improve overall performance. Moreover, the results indicate that the consequences of the war extend beyond direct effects on agrifood enterprises, affecting various stages of the agrifood chain. This implies that, in times of crisis, the absence of a well-functioning agrifood SME sector may threaten the sustainability of the entire agrifood value chain. These insights contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the experiences of agrifood SMEs during the early stages of the war, helping policymakers and enterprises prioritize risk management strategies and allocate resources effectively to enhance performance and competitiveness in times of crisis.

Like many other developing countries, urban sprawl is a growing phenomenon in India, which poses socio-economic and environmental challenges that worryingly affect urban sustainability. In this study, a latent class clustering approach was used to investigate perceptions of urban sprawl among 622 urban and peri-urban dwellers in Hyderabad. The empirical results clustered the respondents into three distinct classes based on their perceptions of urban sprawl impacts: ‘undecided respondents’, ‘negative perceivers’, and ‘opportunity perceivers’. The majority of respondents were undecided with no strong views towards the impacts of urban sprawl, which may increase their vulnerability and hinder effective adaptation to the adverse economic, social and environmental effects of urban sprawl. This also provokes concerns about the effectiveness of government interventions to build public awareness of urban development and its impacts on the city. With regard to the role of demographic and socio-economic characteristics in shaping the perception of the respondents, the results revealed that social caste plays a determining role in forming dwellers’ perception. In particular, members of marginalised social castes were more likely to form positive perceptions of the impacts of urban sprawl as urban expansion generates better and stable income that improve their social status. In addition, individuals with higher levels of education were more likely to form negative or positive perceptions, implying that efforts to raise social capital could be a useful means for mitigating the impacts of urban sprawl. Finally, membership in community development organisations was a key factor in dictating membership of the negative perceivers’ class. Overall, our findings suggest that an appropriate policy framework and specific programmes are needed for enhancing dwellers’ perception towards the impacts of urban sprawl, which can enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of a more sustainable governance of urbanisation and contribute to achieving urban sustainability in developing countries.

Purpose – A better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticityof import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU’s demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.

Design/methodology/approach – This study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigatedemand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU’s. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers werecalculated and compared.

Findings – The empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, theinvestigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price ofEgyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.

Research limitations/implications – Due to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data onquantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for consideringseasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behaviorof EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.

Originality/value – The study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze importdemand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS,Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitabilityand performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.

Measuring sustainability at farm level is a priority for both research and policy and requires sustainability indicators to track progress. Indicators make the sustainability concept more concrete and guide farm level decisions, playing a decisive role in determining food system impacts on societies and the environment. Data availability is often a limiting factor when choosing indicators, but not enough attention is paid to the role of data in indicator construction and assessment results. This paper assessed the critical role of data in indicator construction and the potential limitations that current data availability imposes on farm-level sustainability assessments, using the example of dairy farms in Sweden. To do so we used a five-step approach consisting of a literature review, an inventory of data sources, an expert consultation, a matching and gap analysis, and a critical assessment. We found that 20 indicators categorized under 12 out of 20 sustainability themes had measurement issues due to missing scope, temporary data, or additional data requirements. At least some indicators were measurable within all themes in the social and economic dimensions while all indicators for pesticides, non-renewable energy, and soil quality in the environmental dimension had measurement issues. In the critical assessment, we argue that for some indicators, there are trade-offs between data availability and issues of comprehensibility and analytical validity. Furthermore, we found that no single data source could be used to measure all themes; which means that merging of different data sets is needed for a broader on-farm sustainability assessment. Our findings are relevant for the discussion on sustainability indicators and will inform future programs aimed at collecting sustainability data at farm level, which should consider the broad data needs identified and the potential to merge data to enable holistic sustainability assessments.

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a fungal disease that affects a variety of cereals. FHB is most commonly caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium graminearum. FHB infected crops can develop a wide variety of mycotoxins, which are very dangerous to humans and animals. FHB is currently being controlled by chemical fungicides, which are very dangerous for the environment and are only effective under certain conditions. Resistant varieties and well-chosen agricultural technologies can help reduce the prevalence of FHB in plants. However, at present there are no fully resistant varieties. The article analyses the possible ways to identify FHB infected areas in winter wheat and barley crops and how this data can be used to map field infestation. For the detection of FHB is used field scanning and analysis of the multispectral or hyperspectral data results on field contamination. According exact field locations affected by FHB, harvesting trajectories can be designed to distinguish between completely uninfected, minimally infected, and heavily infected plants. According to this, the harvest can later be sorted into top quality, medium and low quality.