The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

The purpose o this paper is to trace the development of the military involvement in Sudanese politics and make some suggestions towards the general assessment of its nature and consequences.

In many African countries where civil war raged not so long ago, former warlords are today running for office in elections. This policy note assesses the effect that these warlord democrats have on democratisation and security.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has emerged as an exogenous shock to global food supply chains, which foreshadows worrying impacts on Africa’s food security and nutrition, and threaten to derail national and global efforts to end hunger and poverty and to achieve sustainable development goals on the continent. This article provides an early assessment of the implications of the invasion for Africa’s food supply chains and food security. Two particularly aggravating factors, which explain the current and likely future impact of the invasion on Africa’s food security are discussed: the timing of the invasion and the two parties involved in the conflict. The article underlines four major channels by which the invasion disrupts African food supply chains: energy markets and shipping routes, availability and prices of agricultural production inputs, domestic food price inflation, and trade sanctions and other financial measures. In addition, the article considers the risk of social and political unrest that disruption to food supply chains and spikes in domestic food prices may inflame. Finally, the paper briefly discusses options for short- and long-term responses by African governments and their development partners to mitigate the repercussions of the conflict on food supply chains, boost food and nutrition security, and build resilience of Africa’s food systems

Apart from being a humanitarian tragedy, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also emerged as an exogenous shock to global food supply chains, with severe consequences for many African countries in particular. Four months into the invasion, we can see three main threats to food security in Africa: a disruption to energy markets and shipping routes; a shortage of fertilizers; and the negative ‘third-party’ effects of sanctions imposed on and by Russia.

In their Natural Resource Governance and EITI Implementation in Nigeria, Musa Abutudu and Dauda Garuba provide the most up-to-date and in-depth analysis of the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), providing a balanced yet critical evaluation of its performance, limitations and potential as an institution for helping Africa’s largest oil exporter to escape the so called resource curse and lay a firm basis for sustainable development. This Current African Issue contains valuable insights and information that will be of interest to all those with a keen interest in institutionalising transparency and accountability in natural resource governance in Africa.

The University of Pretoria’s Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship (CAS) in South Africa; the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI) in Uppsala, Sweden; and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) office in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, convened a high-level policy dialogue on "Pax Africana and Africa’s Post-Cold War Security Architecture: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding." The meeting was held on 19 and 20 May 2023 in Addis Ababa. Representatives of the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), as well as key policymakers from the United Nations (UN)and the European Union (EU); joined by leading academics, diplomats, and civil society activists, participated in the policy dialogue. The meeting addressed the role of key domestic, regional, and external actors in strengthening Africa’s post-Cold War security architecture across the continent’s five sub-regions. This report is based largely on key discussions and policy recommendations from the policy dialogue.  

This collection of essays examines the decade (1986-97) that brackets the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, and is both a narrative of that event and a deep reexamination of the international role in ad-dressing humanitarian issues and complex emergencies. Nineteen donor countries and seventeen international organizations have pooled their efforts for an in-depth evaluation of the international response to the conflict in Rwanda.

An underlying assumption of fiscal federalism is that it should create incentives for both the central and constituent governments to efficiently and effectively deliver services to their citizens. Recent discontents with Nigeria’s federal practice, especially since 1999 when the country returned to civil rule, are mostly associated with issues of fiscal federalism. Disputes and conflicts now occur more frequently between the federal and state governments that have to do with resource allocations and intergovernmental finance especially the intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The perceived vertical and horizontal inequalities engendered by the extant revenue sharing formula and the strident demands in several quarters for “true federalism” have become one of the critical sources of threat to Nigerian nationhood.  These trends point to contradictions in the conceptualization and implementation of the Nigerian federalism including its fiscal components. This chapter discusses the challenges of fiscal federalism in Nigeria within the context of the principle of decentralisation, which is understood generally as the devolution by a central government of political, administrative and fiscal powers to local-level government. It also assesses the effects of decentralisation on government performance and the implications for good governance especially since 1999 when the country returned to civil rule. In order to understand decentralisation it is essential for one to study how government is working at the sub-national levels. Fiscal federalism is treated in this chapter from a broad perspective, which is not limited by either the discipline of Economics especially its classical notion of “fiscal federalism” or the discourse in Political Science on “federalism and democracy”. The approach adopted here is the historical perspective; one that presents a holistic analysis of the challenges of Nigeria’s fiscal federalism in relation to their origins as well as current phases. Therefore, the task here is undertaken  guided by the wisdom in  Adiele Afigbo’s counsel  that “the best way to know anything is to know how it began, what factors dictated its origins and what factors dictate its development, as well as where it is heading.” Thus, while it is necessary to pay attention to contemporary trends and developments in the practice of federal system in Nigeria, and factor these into explanatory frameworks for understanding fiscal federalism in the country, it is important that the historical context be incorporated into the discourse. In this regard, historical realities and social conditions such as the colonial origins of the Nigerian federalism, and the overwhelming influence and domination of the federal polity by the military for a period of over three decades need to be recognized as important background or contextualizing variables. Structural and institutional problems in the Nigeria political economy such as over dependence on income from oil and its associated problems, the nature and character of the Nigerian state, and the orientation of the power elites that exhibit greed and lack of patriotism constitute essential part of the intervening variables. Also of importance is the emerging democratic environment in the country that is providing an enabling milieu for the expression of dissatisfaction with the status and role of the centre in the federation’s fiscal system.

In comparison with other African countries, faith in democracy is strong in Ghana. But the legal tussles that followed the last general election in 2012, and the disqualification of some candidates on trifling grounds in the lead-up to this year’s presidential elections, has spurred public mistrust. This policy note issues a warning about hate speech, violent demonstrations and macho-men militias.

This article discusses the political economy of the Arab Spring. It draws attention to the economic and social factors underlying the recent uprisings in the Arab world. Essentially the article relates the internal dynamics in the Arab countries with their status and role in the global economy. It also notes especially the rising awareness in the Arab world on the role of the civil society in domestic politics, especially its capacity to demand political and economic change. The article is divided into five sections. The first section introduces the main issues, while the second section conceptually interprets the Arab Spring within the intellectual discourse on social revolution mainly but with a brief overview on regime change and democratic transition. The third section examines the relationship between oil, politics, and economy in the MENA region. The fourth section contains an analysis of the economic crisis and the various adjustment measures adopted by some governments on the eve of the uprisings. The fifth section examines the external dimensions of the Arab Spring including the international responses. The discussion of the lessons learned and policy recommendations concludes the article.

Nigeria's status and role as a regional power continues to impact the entire West African sub-region. However the country is facing serious security challenges that are complicated by transnational threats which are associated with organised crime and the activities of jihadist movements. Threats to security linked to the activities of illegal migrants, smugglers, drug traffickers and human traffickers in West Africa have attracted considerable attention from scholars, policy makers and practitioners alike. As the activities of the Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad (People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad) also known as Boko Haram are spreading fast through the northern part of the country into a number of countries in West and Central Africa - notably Chad, Niger, and Cameroon - fears and anxiety have become more noticeable among stakeholders. Also, the challenge of piracy and maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea threatens Nigeria's national security as well as regional stability. This study presents the role of Nigeria as a regional hegemon, and also discusses its response to transnational organised criminality and jihadist activities in the sub-region, highlighting Nigeria's official response as well as other interventions undertaken through bilateral and multilateral platforms. The study concludes that there is no controversy about the desirability of the Nigerian government to curb transnational organised crime and jihadist activities in the country. However, the complexities of strategies and modalities for effective curbing of transnational threats still requires in-depth and concerted efforts than have been given by stakeholders. One may argue that the prospects for effective control of cross-border crime in West Africa are positive. Both at bilateral and multilateral levels, Nigeria has shown commitment to working with other countries within the West African sub-region to address the menace of transnational criminality including smuggling, human trafficking and cross-border banditry. On the otherhand, the oversubscription of Nigeria and some of its immediate neighbours to pseudo-nationalist policies hinder the implementation of broad-based regional strategies to address transnational threats. Thus the general apathy and lack of courage in official circles and among civil society organizations and other non-state actors in West Africa to organise across national frontiers and engage in security and development discourse, all have the tendency to limit the prospects of effective control of transnational criminality. The efforts of the Nigerian government at combating transnational organised crime and the spread of jihadist activities are yielding somegains. However, lack of political will, bad governance, and poorly equipped and motivated defence and security agencies coupled with other problems such as the porosity of the borders and non-involvement of the people have continued to inhibit progress.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was established in 1998 at the time when Nigeria was under pressure from the international community to undertake political reform in preparation for anticipated return to civil rule. The PDP formed the first government after the country re-introduced civil rule in May 1999 and remained the ruling party at the national level and also in government in the majority of states of the federation until May 2015 when it lost to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the presidential election, and unexpectedly recorded defeat in the other elections. The climax was on March 28, 2015 when Nigeria held its fifth presidential election and an incumbent president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by retired Major-General Mohammed Buhari who was contesting the presidential election for the fourth time. Apart from its remarkable victory in the previous four successive presidential elections, the PDP had a comfortable majority in the national legislature between 1999 and 2015. However, towards the end of President Obasanjo’s tenure, the party had started to experience disturbing cracks in its internal cohesion. It eventual defeat by the APC at both the presidential and state levels puts an abrupt end to the hegemony of the self-styled “largest political party in Africa” with a vision of “ruling Nigeria for sixty years”. This chapter presents analysis of the remote and immediate causes of the poor performance of the PDP in the 2015 elections. What are the remote and immediate causes of the defeat of the PDP in the 2015 elections? What was the nature of public support for the party and its presidential candidate?  Was the dwindling public support for the party linked to its diagnostic analysis of the challenges of governance and development in the country? What was the role of the Jonathan presidency in the political misfortune of the party? What was the capacity of the party to cope with some of the changes and innovations in the electoral process that may have contributed to the outcomes of the 2015 elections?  How has the PDP faired since the inauguration of the new APC-led government? Is the party adjusting well to playing the role of an opposition party? How well has the party faired in this regard, and what are the lessons learned? And finally, how does the electoral misfortune of the PDP helps us to understand the strength and weaknesses of the democratic institutions in Nigeria? As many are these questions that one consider useful for understanding the party system in modern Nigeria.

The concept of ‘supranationalism’ covers procedures and processes of decision-making in multi-national political communities that encourages the transfer of power to an authority broader than governments of member states. This paper acknowledges that the world is experiencing a re-awakening of supranationality, and that contemporary globalisation processes is contributing to this development that has not only checkmated the state and dissolves the absolutes of the Westphalian system, but has brought in other non-state actors including the civil society to be closely associated with the operations of international organizations. Globalisation processes have come with new challenges for governance and the management of global public goods (such as health, education, human security, etc.). The established of the African Economic Community (AEC) motivated other African regional organisations to introduce elements of supranationality in their operations. From various provisions in the Abuja Treaty, the understanding of supranationality as a situation where an international organization is endowed with powers to take decisions that are binding on it and all the member states is quite clear. The influence of this development is significant for regional integration in Africa. Using historical data and information on the performance of ECOWAS, this paper contextualizes the experience of ECOWAS in its practice of supranationalism. It highlights the opportunities, pressures and constraints for the effective and efficient operation of the supranational organization for ECOWAS These developments are important given that inter-governmentalism for long dominated the process of regional integration in Africa with each member states of regional organization retaining and exercising their full sovereign power in their separate decisions on the application and implementation of regional agreements. The paper concludes by arguing that ECOWAS, with the support of an efficiently run supranational body in the form of the ECOWAS Commission, can facilitate the process of regional integration in West Africa. This, of course, has several political ramifications demanding complex institutions and structures, and extensive political will, as well as unity of objectives and commitments at national and sub-regional.  It suffices to say here that the success of West African integration will depend first on the commitment of states in the ECOWAS region to redefine regional integration in a way that moves the process beyond state-centered approaches to include, among other things, the increased participation of civil society - the people and their representatives in associations, professional societies, farmers’ group, women’s groups and so on, as well as political parties - in regional integration processes.

The Swedish government should involve the African diaspora in Sweden to secure the support of African countries in the UN. It also needs to clarify in what ways Sweden's feminist foreign policy is compatible with African values of respect and dignity for womanhood. These are a couple of recommendations provided in this policy note on how Sweden should act to improve relations with African countries and succeed in its ambitions to achieve the sustainable development goals of Agenda 2030.

There is profound concern in large circles in Africa that the Cotonou Agreement obstructs African governments from supporting domestic production, and that the EU is splitting Africa in two by striking separate deals with different African regions. These perceptions are important considerations for those involved in the upcoming negotiations to replace the existing agreement.

A number of recent studies have expressed optimism about the constant decrease in armed conflicts around the world. The prognosis for Africa does not reflect the same optimism. Poverty reduction, transparent and accountable governance and citizen satisfaction with the delivery of public goods and service have shown no sign of significant improvement. In this lecture, Victor Adetula examines the performance of Africa’s regional organisations in ensuring peace and security on the continent. In doing this, he draws attention to the need for national and regional actors to pay attention to good governance and development as part of their efforts to operate effective collective security systems and conflict resolution mechanisms without ignoring the essence of the global context.

African states have responded to the challenges of the post-Cold War international system mostly by collectively promoting subregional and continental-wide initiatives in conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Admittedly, the existence of many violent conflicts in Africa, as well as their ‘domino’ effects at thesub-regional level, contributed significantly to the growing desire for collective security systems and conflict management mechanisms. The broadening of the role and functions of African regional organisations to include responsibility for peacebuilding and conflict management generally adds credence to the efficacy of regional integration. Many issues, however, present themselves in the engagement of RECs with the peacebuilding process in Africa. Although primarily set up to promote economic integration, Africa’s RECs have increasingly taken up a prominent role in conflict resolution and peace support operations, as evident in the recent peace processes in Burundi, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Mali, Congo DRC, Sudan, and South Sudan, among others. In spite of the challenges they face, RECs are capable of playing important roles with regard to peace mediation, peacekeeping and peacebuilding.

Pan-Africanism was a vital force in the decolonisation and liberation struggles of the African continent. Today, some regional integration initiatives are part of the legacy of Pan-Africanism. Nevertheless, a retreat in Pan-Africanist consciousness justifies the on-going reform of the African Union and other related platforms for African regional integration, peace and development.

The Africa Yearbook covers major domestic political developments, the foreign policy and socio-economic trends in sub-Sahara Africa – all related to developments in one calendar year. The Yearbook contains articles on all sub-Saharan states, each of the four sub-regions (West, Central, Eastern, Southern Africa) focusing on major cross-border developments and sub-regional organizations as well as one article on continental developments and one on African-European relations. While the articles have thorough academic quality, the Yearbook is mainly oriented to the requirements of a large range of target groups: students, politicians, diplomats, administrators, journalists, teachers, practitioners in the field of development aid as well as business people.                    

Peace is not just the absence of conflict. The self-interest lying behind external ‘support’ can take many shapes. The pursuit of justice can sometimes thwart peace efforts. And, last but not least, simply adding more women to peace negotiations will not break male-centric norms.

This chapter attempts to address three key questions: First, how is Professor Sulayman Nyang’s scholarly contributions and policy prescriptions understood and responded to in broad intellectual discourse on Africa and international terrorism? Second, what is the status of the war against terrorism in the external relations of Africa states with special attention to relations with the United States and other Western Powers?  Third, what is the relevance of the global war on terrorism in international relations today?   The chapter notes Professor Sulayman Nyang’s contributions to the scholarship on  Islamic militancy, international terrorism and the US-led global war against terrorism including  his deep insights on changes in the international system and Africa. Africa is generally regarded in the West as the weakest link in the war against international terrorism; it is the political territory that can easily be penetrated by international terrorists. African states are poor, weak and corrupt. These failed states do not have effective government that is able to deliver public goods to its population or even exercise control over much of its territory. In this way these states are threat both to their citizens and the international community that comes under risk as a result of possible violent reactions by deprived and frustrated citizens that generate global problems including international terrorism. However, while many African governments have not earned the respect of the Western countries, the latter have maintained close economic relationship with them most arguably for economic and geo-political importance. These strong ties between Africa and Western countries have spill over to the security sector with the United States and other Western Powers providing assistance and support to help African governments develop and manage their anti-terrorist and counter insurgencies strategies.

Angola’s economic boom averaging about 17 per cent per annum, is centred on its extractive oil industry and has made Angola one of the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa and the world. With national peace providing stability and a strong military to negotiate regional threats, Angola is expected to consolidate its position as a regional power commensurate with its economic and military might. However, Angola faces challenges in the political, social, economic, governance, security and foreign policy arenas. It will also have to contend with election-related violence. While a bright medium-term future is in prospect for Angola, the country will have to negotiate and overcome these challenges to sustain its long-term peaceful development.

In the time period 2012–2013, over 20 national elections and two constitutional referendums are scheduled in Africa. In several of these elections, violence is anticipated to play a prominent role. There is great urgency to support the establishment of effective and legitimate electoral institutions and electoral frameworks; institute reforms aimed at lowering the stakes of elections; encourage the devolution of powers; improve the socio-economic standing of the populace; and devise strategies to prevent and manage electoral violence.

Armed insurgencies, social cleavages and governance deficits relating to authoritarian rule and abuse of state resources all imperil peace and stability in Southern Africa. The Southern African Development Community’s institutional framework for regional peace and security is proving ineffective because its leaders are unwilling to enforce democratic principles.

Southern Africa is likely to experience more social unrest in the foreseeable future. That is one of the conclusions in this policy dialogue, which provides an overview of political and economic developments relevant to regional peace and security in Southern Africa.

While the region continues to experience isolated armed conflicts, and while developmental backlogs present a major risk to regional stability in the long run, currently the most acute source of instability stems from governance deficits, which in the past decade have prompted crises in many of the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). SADC’s institutional framework for regional peace and security has proven ineffective because SADC leaders have prioritised national sovereignty over the enforcement of democratic principles. The institutions have little capacity as they lack material and political support. The governance deficits and SADC’s lacklustre conflict management may in the long run arrest development in Southern Africa.

This Discussion Paper explores the challenges that ethnicity poses for democratisation and development in Africa. It provides an overview of the literature on ethnicity and democratisation and an analysis of the trends on the continent since the end of the Cold War. In this regard, it critically examines perspectives on the impact of ethnicity on democracy and analyses the ethnicity-citizenship nexus in the context of the national democratic question in Africa. This provides the basis for the analysis of emerging challenges facing Africa and the way forward. The paper provides additional insights into the ongoing debates about democracy and the nation-state question in Africa and is of interest to scholars, practitioners and the general reader.

With the coup d’etat of 24 December 1999 and the politico-military conflict that started on 19 September 2002, Côte d’Ivoire broke with its tradition of political stability, which had served as a model in the West African sub-region. It is now facing an unprecedented crisis that is not only jeopardising the continuity of the state, but has also introduced a culture of violence into the society.This study has three objectives. The primary one is to understand the nature of this socio-political crisis, and what is at stake in it. Secondly, the study examines the issue of ivoirité. Finally, it explores the escalation of violence in this socio-political crisis and the catalogue of justifications for that violence.It is argued that the recurrence of military coups d’etat in Côte d’Ivoire signifies the delegitimisation of the modes of regulation built on the tontine system, and calls for a renewal of the political grammar and socio-political regulatory modalities around integrating principles that have yet to be devised.

CONTENT

Introduction

CHAPTER 1. The Three Parameters of the Houphouët Boigny Compromise

Deliberate and centralised openness policy to the outside world

Philosophy of the “peanut roasters”

Paternalistic management of social diversity

CHAPTER 2. Houphouetism Shows Signs of Wear and Tear under Democratisation

Confronting the issues: the political class and the criteria for political representation and legitimacy

“Ivoirité” under Bédié, or the selective function of an ideology

General Gueï’s variable-geometry Houphouetism

The RDR, or Houphouetism the wrong way round

The FPI, or the theoretical expression radical schism Immigration and its politicisation

CHAPTER 3. The Problematic of “Ivoirité” and the Meaning of History in Côte d’Ivoire

The social and political construction of “Ivoirité”

Ideological justification

Political justification

Economic justification

The constitution and ethno-nationalism

Military coups d’état as therapy for “Ivoirité”?

CHAPTER 4. The Course of History, or the Need for the Invention of Another Social Contract

Alassane Dramane Ouattarra (ADO): symbol of the reality underlying the question of being a national

An alternative to “slice” citizenship

Bibliography

This Current African Issue gives an overview of the causes and experiences of electionrelated violence in relation to patronage politics in Ghana. Ghana has been framed b ythe international community as a unique bastion of democracy and peace on the African continent. Nevertheless, the country has come from a military regime like many of its democratic African counterparts and is still prone to some of the problems faced by its more turbulent neighbours. The three main guiding issues that this publication will address in relation to election-related violence in Ghana are:

• The causes of election-related violence in Ghana
• Who the people most likely to cause election-related violence are
• The role that “big men” play in election-related violence

Nigeria, once a promising and resourceful country, is experiencing economic and political decay. This book highlights the remarkable progress wich has been achieved in spite of this decline. It follows Nigeria´s important textile industry from the heyday of the oilboom through successive phases of adjustment and liberalization. The fo-cus is on the trade unions and the book points to the successful institutionalization of a union-based labour regime. It draws on extensive field work, interviews with managers unionists, workers and massive documentation from internal union sources.

Decentralisation is regarded as a way of reducing political competition between people. However, studies in Nigeria show that decentralised politics actually can fuel confl icts and ethnic divisions as community identities become basis for representation.The February 2015 elections have – if the electoral process is free and fair – a potential to ease some of the divisions that decentralisation has fuelled in northern Nigeria.

Two decades after the ‘third wave of democratization’, extensive violence continues to follow elections in sub-Saharan Africa. Whereas national processes connected to pre-election violence have received increased scholarly attention, little is known of local dynamics of violence after elections. This article examines the 2011 Nigerian post-election violence with regard to the ways in which national electoral processes interweave with local social and political disputes. The most affected state, Kaduna State, has a history of violent local relations connected to which group should control politics and the state. It is argued that electoral polarisation aggravated national ethno-religious divisions that corresponded to the dividing line of the conflict in Kaduna. A rapid escalation of violence was facilitated by local social networks nurtured by ethno-religious grievances.

In light of a recent UN Security Council resolution on the Lake Chad region, this policy note identifies major challenges that need to be addressed to create conditions for actors in the region to build a lasting peace. The issues include demobilising local vigilantes and resolving land-related conflicts.