The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has emerged as an exogenous shock to global food supply chains, which foreshadows worrying impacts on Africa’s food security and nutrition, and threaten to derail national and global efforts to end hunger and poverty and to achieve sustainable development goals on the continent. This article provides an early assessment of the implications of the invasion for Africa’s food supply chains and food security. Two particularly aggravating factors, which explain the current and likely future impact of the invasion on Africa’s food security are discussed: the timing of the invasion and the two parties involved in the conflict. The article underlines four major channels by which the invasion disrupts African food supply chains: energy markets and shipping routes, availability and prices of agricultural production inputs, domestic food price inflation, and trade sanctions and other financial measures. In addition, the article considers the risk of social and political unrest that disruption to food supply chains and spikes in domestic food prices may inflame. Finally, the paper briefly discusses options for short- and long-term responses by African governments and their development partners to mitigate the repercussions of the conflict on food supply chains, boost food and nutrition security, and build resilience of Africa’s food systems

This policy brief takes a regional perspective based on a rapid review of the extant literature to cascading climate risks and their links with migration in North Africa. Understanding the climate-migration nexus in the context of North Africa is a cornerstone for taking informed decisions and developing strategies to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change, including potential human mobility.

Apart from being a humanitarian tragedy, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also emerged as an exogenous shock to global food supply chains, with severe consequences for many African countries in particular. Four months into the invasion, we can see three main threats to food security in Africa: a disruption to energy markets and shipping routes; a shortage of fertilizers; and the negative ‘third-party’ effects of sanctions imposed on and by Russia.

Summary of the key messages: The following policy recommendations can help moving government and society in Egypt towards a transformation in the higher agricultural education (HAE) system to advance food system sustainability:

1. HAE institutions in Egypt should develop better strategic alignment to the national strategic priorities for agricultural development, and strengthen linkages with stakeholders, employers, and the productive sectors in order to make the expected contribution to national agricultural innovation systems.

2. HAE institutions should consider setting up innovative mechanisms for monitoring the jobmarket and adapting their curricula in response to changing employment opportunities and technological advances. In connection with this, there is a need for increasing work practice programmes and career training by offering trainings or internships to students to gain more skills and experience for the future job market.

3. HAE institutions need to move away from a mere transfer of information to the development of students’ skills in accessing and applying available information for solving sustainability issues within the food system. Therefore, system thinking and interdisciplinary approaches towards HAE are needed to consider the entire food system and treat dimensions of food system sustainability as an “indivisible whole”.

4. HAE programmes and curricula should be designed in ways that provide students with knowledge in different fields and from across disciplines in relation to food system sustainability, since transformation towards a more sustainable food system in practice requires integrated knowledge and understanding of science, economics, the environment and social values. Especially, HAE institutions must incorporate the concepts of sustainability and social responsibility into all HAE programmes and curricula in order to root the ideas and values of sustainable agriculture into students.

5. A transition towards sustainability in the food system requires HAE institutions to have acadre of educators with a new mindset and the relevant knowledge and pedagogic skills to provide students with up-to-date scientific knowledge and practical skills that increase their technical expertise and ability to apply knowledge in practice and adopt new and creative solutions to food system challenges.

6. Egyptian HAE institutions need to open themselves up towards international sources of knowledge and strengthen their partnerships and collaborations with international universities. Developing such partnerships can help Egyptian HAE institutions promote access to quality academic programmes, strengthen inter-regional, inter-cultural exchange and collaboration to create and reconfigure human capital and provide more capacity for research and teaching.

7. Making these shifts in policy stance operational requires reformed institutional frameworks, high-level political commitment and an inclusive vision of a sustainable food system. More flexible HAE policies and practices through modifying institutional governance structures for greater institutional flexibility and increased responsiveness to stakeholders are crucial.

This study investigates the association between individuals’ concern about contracting COVID-19 and their compliance with recommended preventive and mitigation measures, namely wearing face masks, maintaining social distancing and handwashing, in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey, which was carried out in Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Egypt. Applying a probit estimation technique, a positive and statistically significant association was found between the level of COVID-19 worries and individuals’ compliance with the mitigation measures. Notably, the results revealed that this association followed a “first-up-then-down” trend, showing that compliance with the three mitigation measures rose as individuals’ worries about contracting the virus increased, and then markedly decreased after they had been infected. Socio-demographic characteristics contributing to lower levels of compliance included being male, being over 60, having lower levels of education and having a lower household income. A cross-country analysis revealed remarkable differences between the five countries, with the strongest association between COVID-19 concerns and adherence to mitigation measures observed in Tunisia and Sudan, and the weakest association seen in Jordan and Morocco. Policy implications are outlined for effective risk communication and management during disease outbreaks and public health emergencies to encourage appropriate public health behaviours.

Public health measures introduced in early 2020 to curb the spread of Covid-19 played a critical role in mitigating the worst effects of the pandemic. This column highlights how to understand the effectiveness of these policies in MENA, and the importance of evaluating the relationship between risk perception and compliance. People’s risk perception and attitudes towards the disease varied over time and between countries, and assessing the drivers of these variations, and how they affected levels of compliance, is vital for understanding what happened and for building resilience to future crises in the region. 

The COVID-19 pandemic had disruptive consequences for MENA countries’ agri-food value chains that exacerbated poverty and jeopardized food security. This study examines the relationship between individuals’ perception of contracting COVID-19 and their experience of food insecurity, using longitudinal data from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household survey. It also investigates the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 concerns and explores coping strategies employed by households to identify vulnerabilities in food security. The results provide compelling evidence of a strong association between individuals’ concern about the virus and various dimensions of food security, particularly reduced purchasing power and decreased meal frequency. Notably, this association follows an inverted U-shaped curve, with food insecurity initially increasing as worry grows, but declining after individuals contract the virus. High levels of concern were also linked to significant income decreases and worsening economic conditions. Moreover, individuals with higher concerns were more likely to rely on specific coping strategies, particularly spending savings and obtaining funds from relatives or friends. These findings underscore the need for government interventions during disease outbreaks and economic downturns to focus on alleviating individuals’ worry and fear to facilitate informed decision-making that minimizes food insecurity consequences. Additionally, the findings emphasize the need to strengthen social protection systems during public health and economic challenges to ensure food security for vulnerable populations. 

We examine the perceived business risks and impacts on performance associated with the Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022 among 450 Egyptian small and medium-sized agrifood enterprises. Our analysis identifies six distinct clusters of enterprises based on their perceived risks and three clusters based on the observed impacts of the war. We find a strong association between perceived business risks and observed impacts, suggesting that the risks identified by agrifood SMEs significantly influence their actual business performance. This underscores the importance of understanding and effectively managing perceived risks to mitigate the negative impacts of external shocks, enhance operational resilience, and improve overall performance. Moreover, the results indicate that the consequences of the war extend beyond direct effects on agrifood enterprises, affecting various stages of the agrifood chain. This implies that, in times of crisis, the absence of a well-functioning agrifood SME sector may threaten the sustainability of the entire agrifood value chain. These insights contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the experiences of agrifood SMEs during the early stages of the war, helping policymakers and enterprises prioritize risk management strategies and allocate resources effectively to enhance performance and competitiveness in times of crisis.

In recent decades, Egypt has experienced rapid internal migration movements triggered by urbanization, socioeconomic development, and environmental changes. From a literature perspective, few scholarly studies have empirically examined the drivers and welfare impacts of internal migration in Egypt, despite the increasing recognition of its inextricably links to urban sustainability. The present study utilized data from two waves of an Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) conducted in 2012 and 2018 and consisting of 63,909 observations to examine factors that determine internal migration decisions and their subsequent welfare effects. The results of the two-stage Heckman selection model indicate that both the determinants of internal migration decisions and welfare outcomes differ appreciably depending on migration stream as well as the socioeconomic characteristics of the migrants. In particular, females were found to be more likely to migrate from rural to urban areas, lending support to the growing literature on the “feminization of migration” in developing countries. The OLS regression results, after correcting for self-selection, make a strong case for the positive welfare gains from internal migration in Egypt. Specially, we found that the welfare gains for older and female migrants are much higher than other age and gender groups. A comparison of the welfare effects between different migration streams shows that all migratory movements were associated with positive and statistically significant welfare gains, except for rural-to-urban migration that was surprisingly found to be associated with significant welfare loss for the migrants. Urban-to-urban migration was found to have the strongest welfare enhancing effects on all migrant groups. The empirical findings underline a number of research and policy implications for a sustainable management of internal migration in Egypt and other countries with similar internal migration trends.

The Covid-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to small and medium agri-food enterprises (SMAEs) in developing countries. However, research investigating what risks Covid-19 posed to these firms, how they responded, and what business opportunities emerged to SMAEs from the pandemic remains scanty. Drawing on a sample of 166 specialist SMAEs in Egypt, this study addressed these entwined questions by using multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) and mediation analysis. Our results point out that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed Egyptian SMAEs to complex and multidimensional risks, and caused profound effects on both upstream and downstream stages of their supply chains. In general, Egyptian SMAEs adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to cope with such Covid-19 risks and impacts, which was attributed to their lack of sufficient financial resources to develop risk management strategies and formalize structures to deal with unexpected events. Interestingly, the results showed that several business opportunities emerged from pandemic; but SMAEs' resource disadvantages constrained their capacity to seize and exploit these opportunities. Moreover, we found that mitigation strategies adopted by SMAEs present a mediating factor between perceived Covid-19 risks and perceived business opportunities. Overall, our findings call for a paradigm shift in relation to enterprise risk management in developing countries' SMAEs toward more holistic frameworks to enhance their preparedness to future shocks, make mature operational and strategic management decisions, and exploit strategic opportunities.

Like many other developing countries, urban sprawl is a growing phenomenon in India, which poses socio-economic and environmental challenges that worryingly affect urban sustainability. In this study, a latent class clustering approach was used to investigate perceptions of urban sprawl among 622 urban and peri-urban dwellers in Hyderabad. The empirical results clustered the respondents into three distinct classes based on their perceptions of urban sprawl impacts: ‘undecided respondents’, ‘negative perceivers’, and ‘opportunity perceivers’. The majority of respondents were undecided with no strong views towards the impacts of urban sprawl, which may increase their vulnerability and hinder effective adaptation to the adverse economic, social and environmental effects of urban sprawl. This also provokes concerns about the effectiveness of government interventions to build public awareness of urban development and its impacts on the city. With regard to the role of demographic and socio-economic characteristics in shaping the perception of the respondents, the results revealed that social caste plays a determining role in forming dwellers’ perception. In particular, members of marginalised social castes were more likely to form positive perceptions of the impacts of urban sprawl as urban expansion generates better and stable income that improve their social status. In addition, individuals with higher levels of education were more likely to form negative or positive perceptions, implying that efforts to raise social capital could be a useful means for mitigating the impacts of urban sprawl. Finally, membership in community development organisations was a key factor in dictating membership of the negative perceivers’ class. Overall, our findings suggest that an appropriate policy framework and specific programmes are needed for enhancing dwellers’ perception towards the impacts of urban sprawl, which can enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of a more sustainable governance of urbanisation and contribute to achieving urban sustainability in developing countries.

Nearly half of Africa’s economies are on the brink of debt distress. Unlike previous debt crises, the current one is characterised by a shift from multilateral to commercial and bilateral creditors, notably China, and the proliferation of Eurobonds. Pressured by heavy debt burdens, there is a risk that African governments divert funds from essential sectors such as education, health care and agriculture, causing a vicious cycle of stalled development, food insecurity and an elevated risk of socio-political instability.

Purpose – A better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticityof import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU’s demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.

Design/methodology/approach – This study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigatedemand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU’s. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers werecalculated and compared.

Findings – The empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, theinvestigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price ofEgyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.

Research limitations/implications – Due to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data onquantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for consideringseasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behaviorof EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.

Originality/value – The study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze importdemand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS,Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitabilityand performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.

The generally held belief is that government spending on education and research and development is to bring about direct impacts on the advancement and sustainability of an economy. Nonetheless, this evidence is not prevalent within industrialized and third-world economies, particularly among the foremost ten carbon dioxide releasing economies. Therefore, the OLS and the DEA are used to estimate the relationship between government public spending on research and development plus green economic advancement, utilizing data from several countries between 2008 and 2018. The findings reveal a varying green economic expansion indicator, which is a result of inadequate government programs to deliver results. Subsequently, for types of expenditure where formal juxtaposition can be made, such as RE compared with conventional energy, the authors detect that multipliers on green cost are almost twofold their traditional sources. The point approximate of the multipliers is 1.1–1.7 for green energy financing and 0.4 and 0.7 for conventional energy financing, depending on time and modeling. These results passed all the required sensitivity analyses. They provided backing to the bottom-up analysis, which reveals that controlling global warming, including preventing biodiversity extinction, works hand in hand with creating economic development and advancement. 

This paper evaluates the carrying capacity of cultivated land in Guangdong Province,China, using the entropy weight method. Ecological and environmental pressuresignificantly impacts capacity, while economic and social factors are stable.Production pressure fluctuates and rises. To improve capacity, we must reduce ecologicaland environmental pressure, protect cultivated land resources, develop andpromote green technology, and maintain water conservation facilities. The resultsindicate that reducing ecological and environmental pressure is essential to improvethe carrying capacity of cultivated land in Guangdong Province. In conclusion, thisstudy highlights the importance of balancing economic growth with environmentalsustainability in developing regions like Guangdong Province. It suggests that aholistic approach that considers ecological, economic, and social factors is necessaryto ensure long-term food security and sustainable land use practices.

Africa’s countries have agreed to form the world's largest free trade area, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The purpose is to create a single market by eliminating trade and labour barriers. This is expected to increase trade both within Africa and with other regions. However, past trade reforms have not been very successful. Moreover, the effects of the AfCFTA may vary greatly from country to country due to differences in political will, capacity and economic structure. The key to making it work is to facilitate trade and reduce non-tariff trade barriers, while taking into account the diversified political and economic context.

Background: The global food system is causing considerable environmental harm. A transition towards more sustainable consumption is needed. Targeted public policy interventions are crucial for stimulating such transition. While there is extensive research about the promotion of more environmentally sustainable food consumption, this knowledge is scattered across different sources. This systematic map aims to collate and describe the available evidence on public policy interventions such as laws, directives, taxes and information campaigns, for achieving sustainable food consumption patterns.

Methods: We will search bibliographic databases, specialist websites, Google Scholar and bibliographies of relevant reviews. Searches for academic literature will be performed in English, while searches for grey literature will be performed in English, Swedish, Danish and Norwegian. Screening, including consistency checking exercises, will be done at two levels: title and abstract, and full text. We will use machine learning algorithms to support screening at the title and abstract level. Coding and meta-data extraction will include bibliographic information, policy details and context, and measured environmental outcome(s). The evidence base will be summarised narratively using tables and graphs and presented as an online interactive searchable database and a website that will allow for visualisation, filtering and exploring systematic map findings, knowledge gaps and clusters.

PurposeThis study examines the willingness of Spanish and Lithuanian grain farmers to adopt a combined approach of preventive site-specific spraying (PSSS) and selective harvesting (SH), two precision agricultural technologies (below referred to as PSSS-SH) aimed at mitigating the risk of mycotoxin contamination in barley and wheat.

MethodsData were collected from 190 commercial grain farmers using a choice experimental survey. The empirical analysis relied on the estimation of mixed logit and integrated latent class models.

ResultsThe surveyed farmers were heterogeneous in their preference for the PSSS-SH technology, with a majority (81%) reporting that they were willing to adopt and pay for the PSSS-SH technology. Furthermore, the farmers’ willingness to adopt PSSS-SH technology was influenced by the trade-offs between the potential production, economic and environmental changes.

ConclusionProfit maximization is not the only motivation for a farmer’s decision to adopt PSSS-SH, there are also important non-financial benefits that align with the observed choices. Furthermore, the perceived usefulness of the technology, the willingness and readiness to use the technology, and the farmer characteristics (e.g. cooperative membership, employment status, share of household income from grain production and past experience with precision farming technology) were positively associated with uptake of the PSSS-SH technology. Therefore, extension programmes should have a special focus on the perceived usefulness of the technology, the willingness and readiness of farmers to use it, and its unique characteristics.

Measuring sustainability at farm level is a priority for both research and policy and requires sustainability indicators to track progress. Indicators make the sustainability concept more concrete and guide farm level decisions, playing a decisive role in determining food system impacts on societies and the environment. Data availability is often a limiting factor when choosing indicators, but not enough attention is paid to the role of data in indicator construction and assessment results. This paper assessed the critical role of data in indicator construction and the potential limitations that current data availability imposes on farm-level sustainability assessments, using the example of dairy farms in Sweden. To do so we used a five-step approach consisting of a literature review, an inventory of data sources, an expert consultation, a matching and gap analysis, and a critical assessment. We found that 20 indicators categorized under 12 out of 20 sustainability themes had measurement issues due to missing scope, temporary data, or additional data requirements. At least some indicators were measurable within all themes in the social and economic dimensions while all indicators for pesticides, non-renewable energy, and soil quality in the environmental dimension had measurement issues. In the critical assessment, we argue that for some indicators, there are trade-offs between data availability and issues of comprehensibility and analytical validity. Furthermore, we found that no single data source could be used to measure all themes; which means that merging of different data sets is needed for a broader on-farm sustainability assessment. Our findings are relevant for the discussion on sustainability indicators and will inform future programs aimed at collecting sustainability data at farm level, which should consider the broad data needs identified and the potential to merge data to enable holistic sustainability assessments.

In an analysis of food system sustainability challenges and solutions among Swedish food system actors using Q-methodology, five perspectives were identified. One of the main three perspectives placed the highest priority on reduced meat consumption, food waste, and climate impact in agriculture, but downplayed strategies highlighted in the national food strategy and social aspects, and can be interpreted as a diagnostic climate mitigation-oriented perspective that does not reflect current negotiated policy processes or ‘softer’ values of food. In an alternative regenerative perspective, industrialized large-scale farming and lack of internalization of external costs were regarded as the main problems, and diversity, soil health, and organic farming as the main solutions. Proponents of a third perspective regarded phasing out fossil fuels, increased profitability of companies, increased meat production, and self-sufficiency as high priorities. These contrasting views can be a major barrier to transforming the Swedish food system. However, a number of entry points for change (i.e. aspects highly important for some and neutral for others) were identified, including focusing on healthy diets and increased production of fruit and vegetables. Focusing on these can build trust among stakeholders before moving to discussions about the larger and more sensitive systemic changes needed.

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a fungal disease that affects a variety of cereals. FHB is most commonly caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium graminearum. FHB infected crops can develop a wide variety of mycotoxins, which are very dangerous to humans and animals. FHB is currently being controlled by chemical fungicides, which are very dangerous for the environment and are only effective under certain conditions. Resistant varieties and well-chosen agricultural technologies can help reduce the prevalence of FHB in plants. However, at present there are no fully resistant varieties. The article analyses the possible ways to identify FHB infected areas in winter wheat and barley crops and how this data can be used to map field infestation. For the detection of FHB is used field scanning and analysis of the multispectral or hyperspectral data results on field contamination. According exact field locations affected by FHB, harvesting trajectories can be designed to distinguish between completely uninfected, minimally infected, and heavily infected plants. According to this, the harvest can later be sorted into top quality, medium and low quality.