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  • 1.
    Holmqvist, Göran
    The Nordic Africa Institute, Globalization, Trade and Regional Integration.
    A short note on Kenya and early warning signals2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Kenya crisis came largely as a surprise, at least to outsiders. Was it possible to see it coming? Is Kenya a special case, or are there reasons to expect similar crises in other ”stable” African nations with politics, ethnicity and inequality forming an explosive blend?

    This short exploratory note will approach these questions by taking a look at opinion poll datafrom the Afrobarometer 2005 and 2003. Were any signals of what was coming already there,before our eyes?

  • 2.
    Holmqvist, Göran
    The Nordic Africa Institute, Globalization, Trade and Regional Integration.
    Fertility impact of social transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa - What about pensions2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The potential link between child-related cash transfers and increased fertility is often raised asan issue of concern when debating their use. Old-age pension is a form of cash transfer wheretheory would suggest the opposite impact, i.e. pensions equal decreasing fertility. A handful ofSub-Saharan African countries have introduced non-contributory social pensions that cover thegreat majority of the older population. It makes them into a distinct group in relation to the rest ofthe region where public old-age security arrangements, if existing at all, are largely reserved forthe formal sector. This paper attempts to trace any impact these high-coverage pensionschemes may have had on fertility. Findings suggest that there has been such an impact, in therange of 0,5 to 1,5 children less per woman depending on model specification.

  • 3.
    Holmqvist, Göran
    The Nordic Africa Institute, Globalization, Trade and Regional Integration.
    HIV and Income Inequality: If there is a link, what does it tell us?2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a striking variation in the prevalence of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among countries and regions of the world, with a distinct geographical pattern. This paper explores the link between income inequality and HIV. It presents empirical evidence—a meta-study and additional cross-country regression results—that clearly support the argument that such a link exists. The interpretation of this link is an open issue. Four different hypotheses are discussed, each one pointing out a transit route from income inequality to HIV. The paper presents preliminary evidence on these routes and identifies potential areas for future research.

  • 4.
    Holmqvist, Göran
    The Nordic Africa Institute, Globalization, Trade and Regional Integration.
    Impact of the Financial crisis on Africa: The unpredictable flows: remittances and aid2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The forecast of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa have repeatedly been revised downwards over the last 6 months. It has now reached 2% which is close to a third of what it was a year ago, implying negative growth in per capita terms. Considerable uncertainties remain in these forecasts. Oil- and mineral exporters are likely to take a severe first hit, as collapsing commodity prices translate to reduced export revenues and foreign direct investments are paralyzed. Two additional flows that connect Africa to the global economy, where impact is harder to predict, are aid and remittances. This note explores how these flows have reacted in OECD countries during previous episodes of severe financial crises. It is shown that if these past episodes serve as a guide to the present, then a considerable reduction is to be expected. Remittances would react immediately, while the impact on aid would be lagged but being more prolonged. Given that projection, the critical need for more of accountability in international aid commitments is discussed.

  • 5.
    Holmqvist, Göran
    The Nordic Africa Institute.
    Utbudsteori eller hackordningsteori för att förstå SDs valframgångar?2010Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    En kort diskussion av hur SDs valframgångar skall förstås utifrån tre tänkbara teorier: "Konventionell teori" (SDs framgångar reflekterar missnöje med migrationspolitiken), "utbudsteori" (SD får röster där de tenderar att etablera sig)samt "hackordningsteori" (väljarnas efterfrågan på SD bör sökas i hur svenskfödda relaterar till varandra, inte bara i deras relation till invandrare).

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