The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

This policy brief takes a regional perspective based on a rapid review of the extant literature to cascading climate risks and their links with migration in North Africa. Understanding the climate-migration nexus in the context of North Africa is a cornerstone for taking informed decisions and developing strategies to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change, including potential human mobility.

The Mediterranean region is grappling with significant challenges involving water insecurity (e.g. water stress), energy insecurity (e.g. electrification level), food insecurity (e.g. undernourishment and malnutrition), and ecosystem insecurity (e.g. biodiversity loss, deforestation and pollution). These challenges, amplified by climate change, have profound implications for sustainable development in the region, evidenced by the fact that most countries have yet to achieve, or are not progressing towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) relating to food security (SDG 2 – zero hunger), water security (SDG 6 – clean water and sanitation), energy (SDG 7 – affordable and clean energy), and ecosystems, both marine ecosystems (SDG 14 – life below water) and terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15 – life on land). Traditionally, the approaches and efforts to address sustainability challenges in the Mediterranean WEFE sectors have been supply-oriented, sector-focused, and fragmented, often failing to adequately consider the intricate interconnections between different resource systems. However, scholars and policymakers in the Mediterranean are increasingly acknowledging the need for systematic and integrated governance approaches and innovative tools to account for interdependencies between sustainability challenges and approach them holistically to address sustainable development challenges in the Mediterranean region. This need has prompted the emergence of integrated approaches for analysing and managing the interactions between components of the WEFE nexus and their trade-offs and synergies. The WEFE nexus has therefore evolved to focus on achieving SDGs by improving water, energy and food security, as well as the functionality of ecosystems through increasing the efficiency of resource use, reducing trade-offs, strengthening synergies, and enhancing governance across different sectors. However, existing research efforts and policy initiatives on the WEFE nexus in Mediterranean countries have tended to be conceptual, reaffirming the importance of the concept, but there is still a lack of concrete examples of the actual implementation of such an approach. This limited effective implementation of WEFE nexus approaches in the region can be attributed to the fact that WEFE nexus approaches are data-driven and require widely accessible information and reliable data, which in many cases underpin the implementation of nexus approaches.

To transition from conceptualisation to implementation of the WEFE nexus approach, it is essential to develop appropriate methodologies and indicators for measuring, monitoring, and examining progress. The operationalisation of the WEFE nexus approach involves methodological challenges. First and foremost is that there is no single methodology best suited for all WEFE nexus challenges and at all scales, due to the diverse nature of the addressed problems, different resolutions and boundary conditions. Moreover, there is the need to better integrate both nature and societal domains. Holistic, predictive, transferable and scalable methodologies represent the general features most appropriate for operationalising the WEFE nexus approach. Finally, when operationalising the WEFE nexus approach, it is crucial to consider the existence of trade-offs (conflicting goals) and synergies (mutually beneficial outcomes) between sectoral sustainability policies across the SDGs. An awareness of the interconnection between goals is essential for making informed decisions. Without this awareness, trade-offs may arise, and progress towards one sustainability target could potentially hinder advancements towards other targets. Therefore, sustainability policies that effectively balance the preservation of ecological integrity and the promotion of economic growth and social equity often result in more instances of synergistic interactions between different SDGs. WEFE nexus interventions that holistically address both ecological and socioeconomic concerns tend to yield positive outcomes across multiple goals.

This study explored the use of conservation agriculture (CA) as a climate adaptationstrategy among smallholder farmers in Eastern Zambia. Using 761 household interviewsand 33 focus group discussions (FGDs) with smallholder farmers from six districts, datawas collected on how smallholder farmers in the region experience climate change,what CA practices they had adopted, and benefits and challenges associated withCA practice. Results show that men and women farmers had similar experiences ofclimate change, namely late onset of a shortened rainy season, intra-seasonal droughtand higher temperatures. Farmers’ perceptions of gender-mediated effects of climatechange had important nuances. The three most cited effects of climate change onwomen mentioned by women were lower crop yields, outbreaks of armyworms andreduced livestock fodder. The men thought women were most affected by increasedhunger, lower crop yields and reduced domestic water sources. According to the womenFGDs, men were most affected through reduced crop yields, increases in livestockdiseases and increased hunger. The men self-reported reduced crop yields, reducedwater for livestock and outbreaks of armyworms. Both men and women saw CA ashaving climate change adaptation benefits. For the women, men most benefitted fromCA through the high moisture holding capacity of basins, higher crop yields and reducedlabor requirements through use of oxen ripping. The men most appreciated the highcrop yields, improved soil fertility and reduced costs as less fertilizer is used. The womencited the high moisture holding capacity of basins, high crop yields and improved soilfertility as benefits they most commonly derived from CA, while the men thought thewomen most benefitted from CA through the higher crop yields, improved soil fertilityand crop tolerance to droughts. The study concludes that there is room for CA to serveas a climate smart agricultural system for both men and women smallholder farmers inEastern Zambia. However, this will require addressing important challenges of high weedpressure, high labor demands, and low access to manure, and CA farming implements.The CA package for Zambia should include access to timely climate information andclimate informed crop choices

Non-technical summary

We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.

Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges of our time with the impact severely distressing lives and livelihoods particularly in countries of the Global South. In Kenya, climate-related disasters and extreme events have plagued the most vulnerable communities with the most affected as marginalized communities. Through the institutionalization of the Kenya Climate Change Act (2016), the government provides guidance for the climate change response, proposing measures to build resilience and enhance adaptation. Efforts to promote adaption and resilience of communities and households often involve multi-pronged approaches promoted through multi-actor and multi-level action. Besides the provisions of the Act., climate adaptation discourse in the country is shaped through particular narratives which have both international and national contexts. The narratives have developed over time and often overlap, with institutions and individuals working across the different frames. In this paper, we review literature on climate adaptation in Kenya and use it to discuss four of the dominant narratives that shape climate change adaption in the country. The narratives discussed in this paper relate to adaptive capacities, technological and technical, gender and feminist, and climate justice framings. We argue that some narratives have been dominant in shaping adaptation discourse and practice towards certain solutions, and in turn may have obscured and/or subsumed other plausible solutions.

The working paper was undertaken as part of the gender and social equity research work under ClimBeR – Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes. ClimBeR is an initiative of the CGIAR which aims to transform climate adaptation capacity of food and agricultural systems Guatemala, Kenya, Morocco, Philippines, Senegal and Zambia. Its goal is to tackle vulnerability to climate change at its roots and support countries as they adapt and build equitable and sustainable futures.

Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.