The Nordic Africa Institute – Publications

In Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), climate change and variabilityare increasingly affecting agricultural systems, raising the risk of food insecurity.Beyond climatic factors, market price fluctuations, national policies, and socialnetworks shape community responses to shocks and influence vulnerability andresilience. This study integrates climate, land-use, market, and local perceptiondata to identify locally grounded pathways through which food insecurity emergesin Kalama sub-county, Machakos County, Kenya, thereby informing targeted adaptationand policy interventions. The study used a mixed-methods approach. Secondary data on climatevariability, agricultural expansion, food production, and market prices wereprocured and analyzed. Primary qualitative data were collected through focusgroup discussions and key informant interviews with residents of Kalama subcounty.Climate trend analyses were performed to quantify rainfall and temperaturechanges since 1981. Agricultural expansion in the study area increased fourfold between 1990and 2023, reflecting adaptation through cultivation of previously unproductivelands. Innovations such as drip irrigation, sand dams, and drought-resistant cropswere reported. However, climate variability remains a major constraint: long rainsdeclined significantly (−1.32 mm/season/year; p = 0.042) while annual maximumtemperature increased by approximately 1.0°C since 1981 (+0.23°C/decade; p <0.001), undermining crop yields and food productivity. Additionally, food pricevolatility linked to global events (COVID-19, the Ukraine–Russia war) and nationalpolicies marginalizing ASALs exacerbated food insecurity. Qualitative narrativesindicated persistent food insecurity among vulnerable groups despite adaptationefforts. Findings demonstrate that climate change impacts are compoundedby global economic shocks and policy marginalization, reducing local resilienceand food system stability. Integrated policy responses are needed, includingmarket stabilization, targeted agricultural investments in ASALs, and social protectionprograms to buffer vulnerable communities against climate and economicshocks.

The displacement of people in Africa is increasingly shaped by overlapping crises – a polycrisis – where conflict, climate change and economic shocks amplify one another and strain response systems. While humanitarian needs remain urgent, long-term resilience requires stronger institutions, locally led approaches and coordination. Drawing on consultations with 20 experts, this policy note identifies key areas for more effective responses, including how Nordic and international actors can support stronger African leadership and context-sensitive solutions.

Sudan’s civil war has evolved into a grinding, increasingly regionalised conflict fuelled by security fragmentation, rival war economies and centre–periphery divides. The Gulf monarchies and neighbouring powers shape the battlefield through arms, finance and diplomatic cover, deepening proxy-war dynamics. Three scenarios now dominate: a high-likelihood drift toward a de facto split, a possible Gulf-driven return to talks, or a lower-probability military takeover by one of the two warring parties.

The extraction of critical minerals in Senegal highlights the complex tradeoffs between economic growth, environmental sustainability and social equity. Projects like the French-led Eramet Grande Côte (EGC) have led to environmental degradation, threats to livelihoods and community tensions, exacerbated by weak law enforcement and suppressed activism. This policy note calls for stronger governance, community inclusion and sustainable mining practices.

Since 2021, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia have taken steps towards establishing a regional battery value chain, seeking to move from extraction towards higher-value production such as battery precursors and, ultimately, batteries themselves. Energy, transport and skills are rightly seen as key success factors. But other key variables often receive less attention in policy discussions: direct state participation and strategic oversight of investment decisions in the mining sector.